A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
