Escalating War of Words Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Triggers Fears of Armed Clash

Mounting worries are present regarding the potential of military engagement involving East African countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has intensified in recent weeks.

Horn of Africa region
Ethiopia and The Eritrean government cooperated in the civil war in northern Ethiopia but they have later become estranged.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in the previous year that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. After a long-standing battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and hinted at the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

Despite persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been limited to short statements on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for sea access labeling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of reclaiming previous domains.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that attempts to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Border

There have been few indications of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an interview that the army was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Past Origins of the Dispute

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this system and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year civil war ensued, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their common border, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Though this ended in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors remained at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a announcement that the war was finished – a action that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in the country's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

But relations have since broken down again.

Richard Rivas
Richard Rivas

A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in sports betting and casino gaming, specializing in data-driven strategies.