🔗 Share this article

Just 60 days ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six games, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have piled up.

As per Opta, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.